Quantifying Geothermal Potential: Embracing Uncertainty for Robust National Renewable Estimates

Abstract

Geothermal energy, a stable and baseload renewable resource, holds significant promise for decarbonizing global energy systems. However, accurately quantifying its potential remains a challenge due to inherent geological uncertainties. Traditional single-value estimates often fail to capture the full spectrum of possibilities, leading to potentially misleading national renewable energy projections. This article explores the importance of incorporating uncertainty modelling into geothermal resource assessment and proposes a methodology for expressing national potential as a range, especially based on Neutrosophic Probability theory introduced by one of us (FS).